Recent publications
Article
Archer, L, Hattle, M, Riley, RD & The eFI+ investigators 2024, 'Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults', Age and Ageing, vol. 53, no. 3, afae057. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afae057
for the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications collaborative network 2024, 'Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict birth weight: individual participant data meta-analysis', BMJ Medicine, vol. 3, no. 1, e000784. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjmed-2023-000784
Moriarty, AS, Paton, LW, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Riley, RD, Buckman, JEJ, Chew Graham, CA, Gilbody, S, Ali, S, Pilling, S, Meader, N, Phillips, B, Coventry, PA, Delgadillo, J, Richards, DA, Salisbury, C & McMillan, D 2024, 'Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict relapse in adults with remitted depression in primary care: secondary analysis of pooled individual participant data from multiple studies', BMJ Mental Health, vol. 27, no. 1, e301226. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjment-2024-301226
Collins, GS, Dhiman, P, Ma, J, Schlussel, MM, Archer, L, Van Calster, B, Jr, FEH, Martin, GP, Moons, KGM, van Smeden, M, Sperrin, M, Bullock, GS & Riley, RD 2024, 'Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation', BMJ, vol. 384, e074819. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074819
Riley, RD, Archer, L, Snell, KIE, Ensor, J, Dhiman, P, Martin, GP, Bonnett, LJ & Collins, GS 2024, 'Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 2): how to undertake an external validation study', BMJ (Clinical research ed.), vol. 384, e074820. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074820
Riley, RD, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Ensor, J, Debray, TPA, Van Calster, B, Van Smeden, M & Collins, GS 2024, 'Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 3): calculating the sample size required for an external validation study', BMJ, vol. 384, e074821. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074821
Archer, L, Peat, G, Snell, KIE, Hill, JC, Dunn, KM, Foster, NE, Bishop, A, van der Windt, D & Wynne-Jones, G 2024, 'Musculoskeletal Health and Work: Development and Internal-External Cross-Validation of a Model to Predict Risk of Work Absence and Presenteeism in People Seeking Primary Healthcare', Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10926-024-10223-w
Riley, RD, Pate, A, Dhiman, P, Archer, L, Martin, GP & Collins, GS 2023, 'Clinical prediction models and the multiverse of madness', BMC medicine, vol. 21, no. 1, 502. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-03212-y
Archer, L, Snell, KIE, Stynes, S, Axén, I, Dunn, KM, Foster, NE, Wynne-Jones, G, van der Windt, DA & Hill, JC 2023, 'Development and External Validation of Individualized Prediction Models for Pain Intensity Outcomes in Patients With Neck Pain, Low Back Pain, or Both in Primary Care Settings', Physical Therapy, vol. 103, no. 11, pzad128. https://doi.org/10.1093/ptj/pzad128
Hudda, MT, Archer, L, Smeden, MV, Moons, KGM, Collins, GS, Steyerberg, EW, Wahlich, C, Reitsma, JB, Riley, RD, Calster, BV & Wynants, L 2023, 'Minimal reporting improvement after peer review in reports of COVID-19 prediction models: systematic review', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, vol. 154, pp. 75-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.12.005
Koshiaris, C, Archer, L, Lay-Flurrie, S, Snell, K, Riley, R, Stevens , R, Banerjee, A, Usher-Smith, JA, Clegg, A, Payne , RA, Ogden , M, Hobbs, FDR, McManus, RJ & Sheppard, JP 2023, 'Predicting the risk of acute kidney injury: Derivation and validation of STRATIFY-AKI', British Journal of General Practice . https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2022.0389
Booth, S, Mozumder, SI, Archer, L, Ensor, J, Riley, RD, Lambert, PC & Rutherford, MJ 2023, 'Using temporal recalibration to improve the calibration of risk prediction models in competing risk settings when there are trends in survival over time', Statistics in Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.9898
Archer, L, Koshiaris, C, Lay-Flurrie, S, Snell, KIE, Riley, RD, Stevens, R, Banerjee, A, Usher-Smith, JA, Clegg, A, Payne, RA, Hobbs, FDR, McManus, RJ & Sheppard, JP 2022, 'Development and external validation of a risk prediction model for falls in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment: retrospective cohort study', BMJ, no. 379, e070918. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2022-070918
Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Ensor, J, Archer, L, Booth, S, Mozumder, SI, Rutherford, MJ, van Smeden, M, Lambert, PC & Snell, KIE 2022, 'Minimum sample size calculations for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a time-to-event outcome', Statistics in Medicine, vol. 41, no. 7, pp. 1280-1295. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.9275
Review article
Salazar de Pablo, G, Iniesta, R, Bellato, A, Caye, A, Dobrosavljevic, M, Parlatini, V, Garcia-Argibay, M, Li, L, Cabras, A, Haider Ali, M, Archer, L, Meehan, AJ, Suleiman, H, Solmi, M, Fusar-Poli, P, Chang, Z, Faraone, SV, Larsson, H & Cortese, S 2024, 'Individualized prediction models in ADHD: a systematic review and meta-regression', Molecular Psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41380-024-02606-5
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