Fear and Present Danger: Extra-factual Sources of Threat Conception and Proliferation

The University of Birmingham Grand Strategy Seminar welcomes Professor Kelly M. Greenhill (Tufts and MIT) to present "Fear and Present Danger: Extra-factual Sources of Threat Conception and Proliferation."

Abstract of the talk: 

When U.S. Senator Arthur Vandenberg famously told President Harry Truman that he’d have to “scare the hell out of the American people” to secure support for the coming Cold War, Vandenburg was tapping into a tried-and-true tradition of strategically cultivating fear to influence attitudes and change behavior. While this tactic has a long history of use, strikingly little has been written on precisely how, why, and when it actually works. In this talk, Greenhill offers just such an explanation. She describes how and why cognitive and psychological biases can be triggered and strategically manipulated on the individual, micro-level as means to macro-level political and military ends. Greenhill further explains why actors engaged in this particular kind of cognitive hacking frequently eschew fact-based arguments in favor of “truthier” alternatives, such as rumors, conspiracy theories, propaganda, and fiction, sources she collectively refer to as “extra-factual information” (EFI).

Greenhill identifies the conditions under which policymakers and the public tend to find EFI-infused threat narratives persuasive, and demonstrates--drawing upon an array of comparative case studies from around the globe, from the late 19th century through the present--that while information content and delivery platforms have changed, the underlying mechanisms that make this tool such an effective instrument of political influence, and EFI, such a useful handmaiden to it, have not.