Reflections on the UK Economy following a Polycrisis

Alan Walters Lecture by Silvana Tenreyro.

Over the past few years, the UK economy has experienced two once-in-a-generation supply shocks: the COVID pandemic and an extraordinary increase in the prices of energy and other commodities triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Adding to its withdrawal from the European Union, this makes a most remarkable concentration of rare events. Fiscal policy has responded forcefully, aiming to offset and limit any lasting impact from the temporary supply contractions caused by the pandemic and the invasion. While monetary policy was initially supportive (providing stimulus in the early phase of the Covid pandemic), it turned contractionary as inflation started to increase above target. The contractionary effects of monetary policy, along with the reversal of Covid-related supply restrictions and the fall in energy and other commodity prices have all contributed to the return of inflation to target over a relatively short period of time. (UK headline CPI inflation has been at or hovering around target since the spring of 2024.)  Silvana will reflect on these enormous shocks to the UK economy and the policy response; she will then discuss the near term outlook and the economic challenges further into the future.  

When: Thursday 6 February 2025, 17:00-18:00, followed by a drinks reception.

Where: Alan Walters Main Lecture Theatre, University of Birmingham, and on Zoom. Further information will be sent to your email address closer to the time of the event. Please register to find out more.

About the speaker
Silvana Tenreyro is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, Fellow of the British Academy and the Econometric Society and Honorary Foreign Member of the American Economic Association. She served as External Member of the Bank of England’s MPC from 2017 to 2023 and is a former President of the European Economic Association. Currently she is the Director of the CEPR International Macroeconomics and Finance Programme, and executive board member of the International Economic Association. She is the recipient of the Yrjö Jahnsson Award, the Birgit Grodal Award, the Banque de France and TSE Prize, the Carl Menger Prize, and the 2023 CEPR Policy-Maker-of-the-year Award. In 2023 she was made Commander of the British Empire. She obtained her MA and PhD (Economics) from Harvard University.

About the lecture series
The Alan Walters Lecture series was established by the University of Birmingham to recognise alumnus, former lecturer and economist, Sir Alan Walters. This annual series is delivered by preeminent economists exploring the importance of economics in today’s world.