Peter Sinclair Townhall Lecture: Charles Goodhart (London School of Economics)

Peter Sinclair Town Hall : ‘The Future of Inflation’ with Charles Goodhart

The rise of China and global demography created a ‘sweet spot’ that has dictated the path of inflation, interest rates, and inequality over the last three decades.  But we are at a point of inflextion, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.  As that sweet spot turns sour, the multi-decade trends that demography brought about are set for a dramatic reversal.

Our new book, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, (Goodhart & Pradhan, 2020), discusses the implications of this at length.  Many of our conclusions are controversial.  Neither financial markets nor policymakers have been prepared for a significant rise in inflation and wages, or a rise in nominal interest rates.  Our other predictions are more benign – productivity will rise and labour will reclaim a greater share of national output, reducing the inequality that has led to so much social and political upheaval.  Of one thing we are sure: the future will be nothing like the past.

There will be the opportunity to ask questions at the end (or submit questions in advance to a.i.beltranhernandez@bham.ac.uk).

This event is available via Zoom. It is the sixth Peter Sinclair Town Hall lecture hosted by the Department of Economics at the University of Birmingham.

About the speaker

Charles Goodhart CBE, FBA is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance with the Financial Markets Group at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Besides numerous articles, he has written books on monetary history, financial stability and banking supervision. In 1997 he in 1997 was awarded the CBE for services to monetary economics.

View Charles Goodhart's profile

About the lecture series

The Peter Sinclair Town Hall lecture series features world class economists presenting their research and its real world implications to an audience of academic economists, economics students, and the wider community. The lectures are diverse in topic but united in that they bring the lens of economics to real world issues, demonstrating how economics can be both useful and a force for good in understanding and shaping the world. The lecture series is inspired by and commemorates Emeritus Professor Peter Sinclair, whose breadth of knowledge, curiosity, and kindness inspired his students and colleagues immeasurably.