Recent publications
Article
MuM-PreDiCT Group 2024, 'Association between pregnancy-related complications and development of type 2 diabetes and hypertension in women: an umbrella review', BMC medicine, vol. 22, no. 1, 66. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-024-03284-4
Whittle, R, Ensor, J, Hattle, M, Dhiman, P, Collins, GS & Riley, RD 2024, 'Calculating the power of a planned individual participant data meta-analysis to examine prognostic factor effects for a binary outcome', Research Synthesis Methods. https://doi.org/10.1002/jrsm.1737
Pate, A, Sperrin, M, Riley, RD, Peek, N, Van Staa, T, Sergeant, JC, Mamas, MA, Lip, GYH, O'Flaherty, M, Barrowman, M, Buchan, I & Martin, GP 2024, 'Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models', Statistics in Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.10094
Archer, L, Hattle, M, Riley, RD & The eFI+ investigators 2024, 'Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults', Age and Ageing, vol. 53, no. 3, afae057. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afae057
for the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications collaborative network 2024, 'Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict birth weight: individual participant data meta-analysis', BMJ Medicine, vol. 3, no. 1, e000784. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjmed-2023-000784
Moriarty, AS, Paton, LW, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Riley, RD, Buckman, JEJ, Chew Graham, CA, Gilbody, S, Ali, S, Pilling, S, Meader, N, Phillips, B, Coventry, PA, Delgadillo, J, Richards, DA, Salisbury, C & McMillan, D 2024, 'Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict relapse in adults with remitted depression in primary care: secondary analysis of pooled individual participant data from multiple studies', BMJ Mental Health, vol. 27, no. 1, e301226. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjment-2024-301226
Collins, GS, Dhiman, P, Ma, J, Schlussel, MM, Archer, L, Van Calster, B, Jr, FEH, Martin, GP, Moons, KGM, van Smeden, M, Sperrin, M, Bullock, GS & Riley, RD 2024, 'Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation', BMJ, vol. 384, e074819. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074819
Riley, RD, Archer, L, Snell, KIE, Ensor, J, Dhiman, P, Martin, GP, Bonnett, LJ & Collins, GS 2024, 'Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 2): how to undertake an external validation study', BMJ (Clinical research ed.), vol. 384, e074820. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074820
Riley, RD, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Ensor, J, Debray, TPA, Van Calster, B, Van Smeden, M & Collins, GS 2024, 'Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 3): calculating the sample size required for an external validation study', BMJ, vol. 384, e074821. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074821
Hattle, M, Ensor, J, Scandrett, K, van Middelkoop, M, van der Windt, DA, Holden, MA & Riley, RD 2024, 'Individual participant data meta‐analysis to examine linear or non‐linear treatment‐covariate interactions at multiple time‐points for a continuous outcome', Research Synthesis Methods. https://doi.org/10.1002/jrsm.1750
Monitoring Inflammatory Conditions Investigators, Leaviss, J, Carroll, C, Essat, M, van der Windt, D, Grainge, MJ, Card, T, Riley, R & Abhishek, A 2024, 'Prognostic factors for liver, blood and kidney adverse events from glucocorticoid sparing immune-suppressing drugs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a prognostic systematic review', RMD Open, vol. 10, no. 1, e003588. https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003588
Abhishek, A, Grainge, M, Card, T, Williams, HC, Taal, MW, Aithal, GP, Fox, CP, Mallen, CD, Stevenson, MD, Nakafero, G & Riley, R 2024, 'Risk-stratified monitoring for sulfasalazine toxicity: prognostic model development and validation', RMD Open, vol. 10, no. 1, e003980. https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003980
Andaur Navarro, CL, Damen, JAA, Ghannad, M, Dhiman, P, van Smeden, M, Reitsma, JB, Collins, GS, Riley, RD, Moons, KGM & Hooft, L 2024, 'SPIN-PM: A consensus framework to evaluate the presence of spin in studies on prediction models', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2024.111364
Review article
Crocker, TF, Ensor, J, Lam, N, Jordão, M, Bajpai, R, Bond, M, Forster, A, Riley, RD, Andre, D, Brundle, C, Ellwood, A, Green, J, Hale, M, Mirza, L, Morgan, J, Patel, I, Patetsini, E, Prescott, M, Ramiz, R, Todd, O, Walford, R, Gladman, J & Clegg, A 2024, 'Community based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people: systematic review and network meta-analysis', BMJ, vol. 384, no. 8422, e077764. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-077764
Levis, B, Snell, KIE, Damen, JAA, Hattle, M, Ensor, J, Dhiman, P, Andaur Navarro, CL, Takwoingi, Y, Whiting, PF, Debray, TPA, Reitsma, JB, Moons, KGM, Collins, GS & Riley, RD 2024, 'Risk of bias assessments in individual participant data meta-analyses of test accuracy and prediction models: a review shows improvements are needed', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, vol. 165, 111206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.10.022
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