Nobody wins in a tariff war, and this will not be different for the US

On the ‘liberation day’ tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, Professor Bryson said:

“No one wins in a tariff war. Tariff wars produce uncertainty, and uncertainty erodes economic growth. In the UK, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is warning that US tariffs could reduce Britain's GDP by 1 per cent. This could easily happen, and 1 per cent might be an underestimate. But, despite President Trump’s aims, the negative impact is unlikely to be limited to the countries targeted by the new tariffs. US residents will experience many downsides to Trump’s strategy that is intended to make America great again. 

“It could be that we are entering a new era of protectionism in which national borders really matter. This would suggest that internationalisation was an anomaly, and that what we are seeing is a return to the old normal of trade protectionism. I do not think that this is the case. All we are experiencing is another phase in the evolution of the international economy. What we do know is that this will be replaced at some time in the future by alterations in national and international regulations and a new phase in internationalisation will commence. 

“Trump has four years in the White House, and the outcome of these four years really matters for US residents. US residents might experience a major increase in living standards that could lock the US into a long-term strategy of trade protectionism. Alternatively, US living standards might be eroded over Trump’s second presidency, and this outcome may result in a dramatic shift in US politics. It would seem that Trump’s current approach is producing waves of uncertainty across the US, and the outcome does not look that favourable for ordinary Americans.”