Computer modelling approach on impact of volcanic eruptions, wildfires and ship emissions reduction as natural analogues of solar radiation management
Volcanic eruptions, wildfires and abrupt change in ship emissions will be used as naturally occurring experiments in the real-world to research whether human management of solar radiation could safely reduce global temperature rises.
Scientists from the University of Birmingham will join a group of experts to model the impact of using solar radiation management (SRM) to tackle climate change and control global temperatures, as one of projects funded by through a £10 million grant from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).
One of the four projects, ‘Quantifying efficacy and risks of solar radiation management approaches using natural analogues’ (QUESTION) will see the University of Birmingham and University of Edinburgh, and the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), Norway work together to study SRM using natural analogues.
The QUESTION project .... will give us clues what might happen should we attempt to do solar radiation management
Main methods that are considered within solar radiation management are stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which creates a protective aerosol “parasol”, and marine cloud brightening (MCB), which increases cloud reflectivity over oceans. While these methods could slow warming, their effectiveness and side-effects, such as ozone depletion and altered weather patterns, are uncertain.
The team behind the QUESTION project will use novel data-science approaches and factor into their models the challenges in mimicking SRM effects, separating SRM signals from other factors, as well as ongoing improvements to climate models. This research will help assess SRM's risks and benefits and the team hope that it will support informed climate action.
Dr Ying Chen, Assistant Professor in Atmospheric Science at the University of Birmingham and the principal investigator on the QUESTION project said:
“Solar radiation management has the potential to be a last resort to slow down man-made climate change buying more time for Net-Zero, but the potential detrimental impacts, such as ozone depletion and extreme precipitation, are currently unknown.
“The QUESTION project will look to real-world natural analogues, that have happened in the recent history and therefore no worrying of side-effects from any new field experiences, and will give us clues what might happen should we attempt to do solar radiation management. so that we can better understand what potential implications there might be. After all, there’s no planet B yet in our current universal horizon.“
The QUESTION project is one of four research projects which explore the feasibility of some unconventional measures to mitigate global temperature rises.
Using computer modelling and data-driven research only, the five-year studies will investigate the impact of:
Professor Louise Heathwaite, Executive Chair of the Natural Environment Research Council, said:
“NERC invests in a wide range of research to tackle, adapt to, and mitigate climate change. The UK’s priority is to tackle the root cause of climate change by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities and adapting to those impacts that are unavoidable.
“However, with the increased interest in deploying solar radiation management measures, there is a pressing need to consider the impact of SRM approaches to control Earth system temperature. These research projects will analyse these approaches in detail and address ethical and governance considerations.”
The studies are part of NERC’s Modelling environmental responses to solar radiation management programme.
Assistant Professor in Atmospheric Science
Staff profile for Dr Ying Chen, Assistant Professor in Atmospheric Science
