“History can be shaped by the most apparently inconsequential of human actions. In this case, the chance move of a head out of the path of a would-be assassin’s bullet. On this occasion, Trump was spared by chance and the potential for political violence his death may well have unleashed was avoided. Yet other, wider patterns of activity set the stage and frame the context of such actions. And ironically the trigger for the events in Pennsylvania can be largely attributed to the political atmosphere that Trumpian populism has created in the United States of America over the last eight years.
As a peaceful and orderly process of government democracy relies on its participants accepting that the process is more important than any particular result. It was on this basis that Al Gore bowed out of the 2000 election even though he had good reason to continue to contest the election result. By contrast, from the very outset in 2016, Trump indicated his unwillingness to accept the result first of the election against Hilary Clinton, unless he won, and did so again against Biden in 2020. Challenging the legitimacy of both the result and the process in this way has the consequence of making his supporters and opponents alike feel that their voices don’t count and that they have no legal and peaceful means of effecting political change. This impart of such sentiments explains the behaviours of the mob that attacked the Capitol building on January 6th 2021 intent on using violence to impose their will on who should be President rather than respecting the legally verified result.
Trump has also contributed to the febrile mood of modern-day America by his refusal to condemn the storming of the Capitol on that day. Instead, he refers to those convicted of assaulting the police guarding America’s democratic institutions as “unbelievable patriots” “political prisoners” and even “hostages”. This failure is consistent with Trump’s record of refusing to condemn the white nationalist “unite the right” rally in Charlottesville in 2017, in which a protester was murdered, famously remarking that there were “very fine people on both sides.”
Trump’s own legal travails have also led him to assault the integrity of the US judicial system with his suggestions that his trails in New York and elsewhere amounted to political persecution. In seeking to undermine America’s democratic institutions Trump has consistently and effectively raised the political temperature of the national political debate to the point that many opinion polls now indicate not only a growing expectation of political violence, but an acceptance of its legitimacy.
As Trump heads into the Republican National Convention this week he has indicated a willingness to tone down his usually incendiary rhetoric in favour of calls for national unity. Given the wave of popular support that is evident from his defiant brush with death, this probably represents a smart political calculation by his closest advisors rather than any near-death damascene conversion by Trump. For their part, the Republicans will be keen to focus public attention back on Joe Biden and to contrast the vigorous response of Trump to the failing physical condition of the President.
Ironically, events in Pennsylvania have probably delayed any attempt by the Democratic party to replace Biden as their candidate. They will not want to be seen to be acting in response to the assassination attempt for fear of any comparison to the political assassination of their own sitting president. Any bump in the polls that Trump gets, however, is likely to contribute to the sense that Biden is not the best candidate to beat him in November. So, while things may go quiet on the debate within the democratic party for a week or so it is reasonable to expect this issue to be revised immediately after the Republican Party Convention.”
