“Polling analysts had said all along it would be a close race, and so it is proving to be. But Donald Trump shaded it. Precisely how his victorious coalition came together will be a subject of much analysis over the coming days and weeks. But at first glance, it appears he made new inroads with some ethnic minority voters (particularly Latinos) and young men, at the same time as adding yet further to his margin in rural strongholds. Although Kamala Harris did increase on Joe Biden's 2020 margin in some urban and suburban areas, it was not enough to compensate for other areas where she fell short of her targets.
This victory represents a remarkable comeback for Donald Trump, who was defeated at the ballot box four years ago, never accepted that result, and was criminally charged for his efforts to overturn it and stay in office in 2021. Having won arguably a more convincing electoral victory than his first, he will now become only the second president elected for two non-consecutive terms, and the first since the 19th century. He will enter a new term determined to use the powers of his office to punish his enemies in politics and American society at large; many fear his authoritarian impulses in this regard will undermine the foundations of American democracy. He will also intend to push forward with implementing a more radical policy agenda – in areas from immigration to tariffs to foreign policy – than he was able to accomplish the first time around. Those hoping that after this election the nation could finally turn the page on the Trump era will be profoundly disappointed. Instead, a new chapter has just begun.”
