Professor René Lindstädt says the complaint about Labour Party volunteers campaigning for Harris is an attempt to cause doubt about the election if Trump loses.
“With the US election now less than two weeks away, everybody is trying to read the tea leaves to get a sense for who is likely to come out as the winner. Reporting on polls has been ubiquitous across the media for weeks and months, but lately there is increasing attention on the betting markets.
In what is sure to be an alarm bell for the Harris campaign, the political gambling markets have put Trump as the likely winner of the election this week. When it comes to trying to predict the winner of this incredibly close race, the betting markets are another data point that should be looked at in the broader context of the polls and other evidence we have. Despite changes to the models there is a real concern that the polls could be underestimating Trump’s support again. The Harris campaign should not completely discard the data from the betting markets but take it seriously and try to do whatever they can to mobilize the key demographics that they will need to win this election.
Despite this good news from the bookies for the Trump campaign, they have been continuing to sow doubts about the election result should he lose. The latest in this attempt comes in the form of the complaint about foreign interference by the UK Labour Party. Volunteers going to campaign in US elections is a longstanding and normal occurrence with both major parties. So, this complaint is further evidence that Trump will not accept defeat if Harris wins. Combined with the more general escalation of his rhetoric during this campaign, especially during the last several weeks, it is clear and worrying indication that this election is going to be a real turning point in American politics, whether Trump wins or loses.”
Head of the School of Government
René Lindstädt Professor of Government and Data Science and Head of the School of Government at the University of Birmingham.
