French election results: Macron’s authority has clearly been diminished

"Emmanuel Macron did not need to call this election and commentators have been virtually unanimous in calling it misguided at best. The better-than-expected performance of the candidates from the Presidential majority as well as the New Popular Front has meant that the outcome is not as catastrophic as it might have been. Nevertheless, Macron’s authority has clearly been diminished and power has shifted to the National Assembly.

Underpinning the results is a widespread malaise throughout the country. Business-as-usual management of the economy does not work for increasing numbers of people, exacerbated by unforeseen shocks to the system such as the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis. Voters are searching for alternatives to the status quo without any consensus over what those alternatives look like, with issues such as immigration and the climate crisis leading to further polarisation and fragmentation.

There is no obvious majority in the new parliament with three main blocks (and the Gaullist centre-right republicans forming a smaller fourth block). Finding a coalition that can deliver a workable majority will be difficult. This looks more like the situation under the 4th Republic which ran from 1946-58 than anything experienced under the 5th Republic. The 4th Republic was characterised by short-lived coalitions and governmental paralysis but then, too, this fragmentation reflected the divided nature of the electorate at the time.

The most interesting element in the next few days will be the extent to which the alliance of the parties on the left will hold. Macron may try to destabilise it by offering cabinet positions to Greens and Socialists in a broad coalition extending from centre-left to centre-right which excludes both the National Rally and France Unbowed.

Macron could dissolve the newly elected National Assembly in 2025 but without anything changing in the underlying circumstances of many French people, it is hard at this point to see how the result would be dramatically different."