New international research reveals key predictors for teacher shortages.
The employment rate of humanities graduates, high teaching hours, reports of poor student behaviour, a lack of resources, and low pay are key predictors of teacher shortages an international study has found.
New research from the University of Birmingham and the University of Warwick and led by Durham University has analysed data from 18 countries, half of which have teacher shortages and half that do not, to identify key predictors of teacher shortages.
The study has been published today (24 October) in Research Papers in Education.
So far little progress has been made to stem the flow of teachers leaving the profession or tempting in new recruits. For those in government, it is imperative to understand the predictors of teacher shortages so that policy can be targeted to those areas.
Beng Huat See, Professor of Education Research at the University of Birmingham said: “The crisis in schools when it comes to staffing teachers has been a political and logistical challenge for the British, and devolved governments for many years. The secondary sector in England is under particularly high strain, especially when it comes to maths and science teachers. There is a similar picture emerging in other countries, with 35 of 43 education systems across Europe having reported a shortage of teachers.
“So far little progress has been made to stem the flow of teachers leaving the profession or tempting in new recruits. For those in government, it is imperative to understand the predictors of teacher shortages so that policy can be targeted to those areas. Our research has looked at education sector data from multiple countries and identified five key predictors of teacher shortages.”
The countries in the study were equally divided between those with and without shortages. Those with shortages were: the Czech Republic, England, Estonia, France, Latvia, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Those without were Australia, Cyprus, Finland, Lithuania, Singapore, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, and Taiwan. Each country was given a shortage factor which combined the shortage indicator for each year, a reported lack of pedagogical personnel, and a shortage of initial teacher education (ITE) applicants.
The possible predictors of teacher shortages were grouped loosely into categories, such as geography, economy, expenditure, employment rates, salaries for teachers, the structure of the school system, class sizes, nature of ITE, workload, stress, continuing professional development (CPD), and the characteristics of the teacher workforce.
The shortage of teachers is a major problem for many countries despite years of investment in recruiting and retaining teachers. Our findings suggest that there are some key factors governments should focus on which include pay, resources and student behaviour.
Across all 18 countries, each predictor was correlated with the shortage factor to select the most promising predictors, which were used in a multiple regression model to help explain the teacher shortage scores.
The researchers found that the high employment rate of those with humanities and social science degrees, teacher pay, teaching hours, lack of resources, and reports of bad behaviour of students were the strongest predictors of teacher shortages.
Lead author, Professor Stephen Gorard, from the School of Education at Durham University, said: “The shortage of teachers is a major problem for many countries despite years of investment in recruiting and retaining teachers. Our findings suggest that there are some key factors governments should focus on which include pay, resources and student behaviour.
“It’s also important to look beyond those who are already planning to enter the profession or are currently working as teachers and make the job more attractive to graduates overall.”
There is also less likelihood of a shortage where statutory working hours are higher but teaching contact hours are lower. Increased teaching is linked to shortages, but total hours are not. This is something that can be addressed by policies such as larger class sizes, or shorter, better-prepared lessons. Similarly, teaching resources can also be addressed by policy changes as can addressing concerns about student behaviour and teacher intimidation by offering better support to teachers and adapting classroom practices.
Professor See concluded: “No one thing is to blame for the teacher shortage, but all of the solutions are in the hands of government. To attract more people into teaching a much greater emphasis must be put into the attractors for those with the potential to be teachers but who are not currently interested, as opposed to merely offering those in teaching more of what they want. As our study shows, steps could be taken to raise the profile and prestige of the profession, and any extra funding used to raise basic salaries, and provide schools with better resources, rather than temporary incentives. Addressing the predictors outlined in our research would be a good place to start trying to address this thorny and persistent problem.”
Professor of Education Research
Beng Huat See joined the University of Birmingham, School of Education as Professor Teacher Education on 1 May 2024.
